By the numbers…

2015
Gross bookings: $8.9 billion
Net revenue: $2.01 billion
Total cost and expenses: $3.33 billion
Loss from operations: ($1.33 billion)
Net loss: ($2.66 billion)

2016
Gross bookings: $20 billion
Net revenue: $6.45 billion
Total cost and expenses: $9.42 billion
Loss from operations: ($3 billion)
Net loss: ($319 million)

2017 Second Quarter
Bookings: $8.74 billion
Net revenue: $1.66 billion
Non-GAAP gross profit: $749 million
Pro forma EBIT loss: ($645 million)
Adjusted EBIT loss: ($894 million)
GAAP loss: ($1.06 billion)

2017 Third Quarter
Bookings: $9.71 billion
Net revenue: $2.01 billion
Non-GAAP gross profit: $865 million
Pro forma EBIT loss: ($743 million)
Adjusted EBIT loss: ($1.15 billion)
GAAP loss: ($1.46 billion)

So, right now they are growing at about 21% a quarter on the top line, but losing money faster too. At some point in the future, the company will surely make money, right? Doubtful anytime soon, and it’s not like a facebook where they build this platform of users and can have outside advertisers bid up to scale.

With Uber, one of two things will happen: (i) it will stop spending money on growth and start booking profit or (ii) it will charge consumers more. Chances are both will happen and the company will slow down on the top line and crush on the bottom.

This may justify the current $50 billion valuation with the stock trading 6.25x sales, but once it gets pushed into the public markets, it might not pay such a great return.

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