strategy

Knowledge Value

Knowledge Value Jonathan Poland

Knowledge value is the value that is derived from knowledge, skills, and information. It can be a measure of the economic, social, or personal value of knowledge and can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as the demand for the knowledge, the rarity or uniqueness of the knowledge, and the value that the knowledge creates for an individual or organization.

In the context of business, knowledge value can be understood as the contribution that knowledge makes to the overall performance and value of an organization. This can include the value of knowledge as a competitive advantage, the value of knowledge in improving efficiency and productivity, and the value of knowledge in developing new products or services.

The value of knowledge can also be understood in terms of its social or personal value. For example, knowledge can have social value if it is used to address social problems or improve the lives of individuals. It can also have personal value if it helps an individual to achieve their goals or improve their personal well-being.

There are several factors that can influence the value of knowledge, including the demand for the knowledge, the rarity or uniqueness of the knowledge, and the value that the knowledge creates for an individual or organization. Additionally, the value of knowledge can be influenced by the context in which it is used, such as the industry or sector in which an organization operates, and the goals and objectives of the individual or organization.

In conclusion, knowledge value is the value that is derived from knowledge, skills, and information. It can be a measure of the economic, social, or personal value of knowledge and can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as the demand for the knowledge, the rarity or uniqueness of the knowledge, and the value that the knowledge creates for an individual or organization. Understanding the value of knowledge is important for individuals and organizations in order to maximize its potential and to make informed decisions about how to use it. The following are common ways to value knowledge.

Cost

The cost that was paid to generate the knowledge. For example, the amount you paid employees to develop a document.

Market Value

The estimated market value of knowledge. Currently, the market for knowledge assets isn’t particularly liquid such that it is difficult to benchmark prices accurately.

Economic Value

An estimate of the future impact of knowledge on your revenue and costs.

Goodwill

When one firm acquires another, intangible assets such as brands are accounted for with a concept known as goodwill. This represents the difference between the price of the acquisition and the value of its assets. In cases where knowledge is the primary intangible asset, goodwill is more-or-less the price that was paid for that knowledge. This serves as concrete evidence of the value of knowledge in an industry.

Quality of Life

Knowledge has value to individuals as it may improve their quality of life in a variety of ways. Access to education, information and other knowledge related resources such as museums are valuable to individuals and communities as measured by quality of life.

Knowledge Transfer

Knowledge Transfer Jonathan Poland

Knowledge transfer is the process of transferring knowledge, skills, and information from one person or group to another. It is an important aspect of organizational learning and development, and it can involve a variety of activities, such as training, mentoring, coaching, and sharing of best practices.

There are several benefits of knowledge transfer, including increased efficiency, improved performance, and increased innovation. By transferring knowledge from one person or group to another, organizations can leverage the expertise of their employees and build a collective knowledge base that can be used to solve problems and improve processes. Knowledge transfer can also help to build a culture of continuous learning and development within an organization, which can be beneficial for employee retention and engagement.

There are several approaches to knowledge transfer, including formal and informal methods. Formal methods of knowledge transfer include training programs, workshops, and conferences, which can be structured and planned in advance. Informal methods of knowledge transfer include mentoring, coaching, and sharing of best practices, which can be more flexible and spontaneous.

In order to be effective, knowledge transfer must take into account the needs and learning styles of the individuals or groups involved. It is important to consider the type of knowledge being transferred, the level of expertise of the individuals involved, and the resources and tools that are available to support the transfer of knowledge. Additionally, it is important to create an environment that is conducive to knowledge transfer, such as one that is open to learning and collaboration.

In conclusion, knowledge transfer is the process of transferring knowledge, skills, and information from one person or group to another. It is an important aspect of organizational learning and development

Here are a few examples of knowledge transfer:

  1. Training programs: These are structured programs that are designed to transfer knowledge and skills to individuals or groups. Training programs can be delivered in a variety of formats, such as in-person workshops, online courses, or virtual classrooms.
  2. Mentoring: This is a form of knowledge transfer in which an experienced individual provides guidance and support to a less experienced individual in order to help them develop their skills and knowledge.
  3. Coaching: This is a form of knowledge transfer in which an experienced individual provides guidance and support to an individual or group in order to help them achieve specific goals or improve their performance.
  4. Sharing of best practices: This is the process of sharing successful approaches, methods, or techniques with others in order to improve the efficiency or effectiveness of an organization or process.
  5. On-the-job learning: This is a form of knowledge transfer that occurs while an individual is performing their job duties. It can involve learning through observation, trial and error, or guidance from more experienced colleagues.
  6. Knowledge management systems: These are systems that are designed to capture, organize, and share knowledge within an organization. They can include databases, knowledge bases, or social networking platforms that allow individuals to share and access information.
  7. Collaboration: This is the process of working with others in order to share knowledge and ideas and solve problems. Collaboration can occur through in-person meetings, online forums, or other forms of communication.

In conclusion, there are many different ways to transfer knowledge, including training programs, mentoring, coaching, sharing of best practices, on-the-job learning, knowledge management systems, and collaboration.

Research Types

Research Types Jonathan Poland

Research is the process of systematically seeking and interpreting knowledge through inquiry, observation, experimentation, and analysis. It is a way of discovering and understanding new ideas, solving problems, and making informed decisions. Research can take many forms, including scientific experiments, surveys, interviews, and observations, and it often involves the collection and analysis of data in order to draw conclusions and make informed decisions. Whether in academia, industry, or another setting, research is an important tool for advancing knowledge, solving problems, and making informed decisions. The following are common types of research.

Information Gathering

All research requires an information gathering phase whereby you seek out information that is relevant to an inquiry, problem or decision. In many cases, research ends here as you find the answers you are seeking. For example, in order to develop a business case for a new non-alcoholic beer product a marketing analyst researches whether or not non-alcoholic beer improves athletic performance. The analyst finds several studies that provide ample data that can be referenced by the business case.

Data Analysis

The process of inspecting, cleansing, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful information. For example, an electric car company that analyzes traffic patterns to determine optimal locations for charging stations.

Information Analysis

Developing interpretations of information. For example, a competitive analysis that attempts to formulate the strategy of a competitor based on their public statements and disclosures.

Basic Research

Basic research is the development of new foundational knowledge without regard to its applications. For example, a project to detect and measure the gravitational waves from supermassive black holes.

Applied Research

Applied research aims to solve a practical problem. For example, medical research that investigates a potential treatment for a disease.

Supporting a Theory

Seeking evidence for a hypothesis. For example, a hypothesis that a particular person can tell if milk or tea was added to a cup first by taste. This can be tested with a double blinded controlled experiment that asks the person to identify which cups had tea added first by tasting each cup. This is a well known experiment known as the Lady Tasting Tea devised by Ronald Fisher in 1935 that confirmed the claim of fellow scientist Muriel Bristol that she could taste whether milk or tea had been added first to a cup.

Refuting a Theory

An attempt to refute a theory that has been previously confirmed with data. It is not enough for a scientific theory to be confirmed by an experiment. A theory can be provisionally accepted based on data that supports it. It is then up to the scientific community to refute the theory. A theory that is confirmed by multiple studies and multiple attempts at refutation may be strongly accepted. In some cases, strongly accepted theories are eventually refuted.

Original Research

Research that seeks to answer unknowns. For example, an analysis of the chemical composition of a rare plant that is previously unstudied.

Secondary Research

Secondary research involves the collection, analysis and interpretation of existing research. For example, a review that looks at the results of hundreds of studies regarding an environmental issue to summarize findings and interpret the state of knowledge about the problem.

Exploratory Research

Research that seeks to provide direction to future research as opposed to completely solving a problem. This is typically fast and inexpensive and may rely on limited data. For example, a study that identifies three approaches that may increase the yield per acre of organic peaches. Such a study may point to several unknowns that represent direction for future research.

Qualitative Research

Research that is based on human observation and analysis as opposed to measurement. For example, market research based on ladder interviews that explore customer experiences with a product to generate a list of customer pain points. This may be more insightful than a survey that generates data but is less exploratory and in-depth.

Constructive Research

Research that designs a solution to a practical problem. For example, engineering research that proposes a novel way to store power generated by solar panels. This solution is then compared to existing methods to evaluate factors such as cost, efficiency and environmental impact. This is a common type of research in applied sciences.

Controlled Experiments

Experiments that occur in an environment such as a lab that allow an experiment to be fully controlled. For example, a test of the efficacy of an disinfectant that controls all dependent variables such as nutrients, temperature, humidity and light that may influence the growth of microorganisms.

Field Experiments

Experiments that occur in the real world. A field experiment may be controlled including being double-blinded and randomized. However, a field experiment often doesn’t control all dependent variables. For example, a clinical trial of a new vaccine that doesn’t control for factors such as lifestyle and diet.

Natural Experiment

A natural experiment is a real world situation that resembles an experiment without any control by researchers. For example, a population of people with similar lifestyles and diets where 30% of people are heavy coffee drinkers, 30% are light coffee drinkers and 40% don’t regularly consume coffee. Data regarding the health outcomes for this population might be used to investigate the health effects of coffee.

Observational Study

Research whereby researchers exert no control over conditions. This includes natural experiments and non-experimental research based on observation of the real world. For example, an observational study may simply capture data about a population such as an estimate for the number of people who self-identify as snowboarders by state.

Longitudinal Study

Research that observes or applies an experiment to same population over time. For example, a study that observes veterans of a war over a period of 30 years to look at data in areas such as health, employment and quality of life. Longitudinal studies can be short term or long term, experimental or observational.

Cohort Study

A longitudinal study based on a cohort, a group of people who share a characteristic of interest. For example, a study that looks at 50 year outcomes of people who graduated from a prestigious university in a five year period.

Retrospective Cohort Study

A study based on historical data for a cohort. For example, a study that identifies a cohort of people who have a particular disease at a point in time and then looks at historical air quality data for the areas where these people historically resided.

Case-control Study

Research that selects groups based on outcomes to look at the factors that may have contributed to those outcomes. For example, comparing the students who did and didn’t drop out of a particular university.

Case Study

A detailed analysis of a single example. For example, an analysis of the life of an individual who lives to an unusually old age to identify any factors that may have contributed to this longevity. This is typically exploratory research that points to possible areas of study.

Cross-sectional Study

Research that captures information about a population at a point in time. For example, the current average family income in a city.

Research & Development

Research aimed a producing a new product or service. For example, research that investigates new lightweight materials for possible incorporation into the design of baseball bats.

Feasibility Study

Research that seeks to validate a method, design or practice. For example, an aircraft manufacturer that investigates the feasibility of converting airports to support large double-deck aircraft.

Root Cause Analysis

Root Cause Analysis Jonathan Poland

Root cause analysis (RCA) is a method of identifying the underlying causes of a problem or issue in order to prevent it from occurring again in the future. It is a systematic process that involves breaking down a problem into smaller pieces and examining each piece in turn to identify the root causes. RCA is used in a variety of settings, including healthcare, manufacturing, and business, to identify and address problems and improve processes and outcomes.

There are several approaches to root cause analysis, including the 5 Whys method and the Fishbone diagram. The 5 Whys method involves asking “why” a problem occurred repeatedly until the root cause is identified. The Fishbone diagram, also known as a cause and effect diagram, involves identifying the different factors that may have contributed to a problem and categorizing them into categories such as people, equipment, processes, and materials.

The goal of root cause analysis is to identify the root causes of a problem and implement solutions that address those root causes in order to prevent the problem from occurring again in the future. To do this, it is important to gather as much information as possible about the problem, including data and input from individuals who were involved in the problem or who may have knowledge about it. It is also important to involve a diverse group of people in the root cause analysis process, as different perspectives and expertise can help to identify a wider range of potential causes.

Once the root causes of a problem have been identified, it is important to implement solutions that address those root causes in a sustainable way. This may involve making changes to processes, procedures, or systems, or it may involve training or education for individuals involved in the process. It is also important to monitor the effectiveness of the solutions implemented and to make any necessary adjustments in order to ensure that the problem does not recur.

In conclusion, root cause analysis is a method of identifying the underlying causes of a problem in order to prevent it from occurring again in the future. There are several approaches to root cause analysis, including the 5 Whys method and the Fishbone diagram. The goal of root cause analysis is to identify the root causes of a problem and implement solutions that address those root causes in a sustainable way. By following a systematic process and involving a diverse group of people, organizations can effectively use root cause analysis to improve processes and outcomes.

Magical Thinking

Magical Thinking Jonathan Poland

Introduction to Magical Thinking

Magical thinking is a type of irrational belief that involves attributing causality to events that are unrelated or that have a natural explanation. It is often characterized by a belief in supernatural forces or the power of one’s own thoughts or actions to influence the outcome of events. Magical thinking is typically seen in children as they develop their understanding of the world, but it can also occur in adults and can be influenced by cultural or individual factors.

Types of Magical Thinking

There are several types of magical thinking that can occur. One common type is superstitious thinking, which involves attributing meaning or causality to seemingly random events or objects. For example, someone may believe that carrying a lucky charm will increase their chances of success or that breaking a mirror will bring bad luck. Another type of magical thinking is magical causality, which involves attributing causality to events or actions that are unrelated. For example, someone may believe that their thoughts or actions can influence the outcome of events, such as winning the lottery or causing someone to become sick or well.

The Role of Culture and Personal Factors in Magical Thinking

Cultural and personal factors can influence the prevalence and form of magical thinking. In some cultures, there may be a greater acceptance or belief in supernatural forces or the power of rituals, which can contribute to the development of magical thinking. Personal factors such as stress, anxiety, or a lack of understanding of scientific concepts can also contribute to the development of magical thinking.

The Consequences of Magical Thinking

Magical thinking can have a range of consequences, both positive and negative. On the positive side, it can provide a sense of control or comfort in situations that may otherwise be uncertain or stressful. It can also serve as a coping mechanism or a way to make sense of difficult or confusing events. However, magical thinking can also have negative consequences. It can interfere with critical thinking and problem-solving, leading to poor decision-making and a lack of understanding of the world. It can also lead to harm, such as relying on ineffective treatments for medical conditions or engaging in dangerous behaviors based on superstitious beliefs.

Strategies for Reducing Magical Thinking

There are several strategies that individuals can use to reduce magical thinking. One approach is to focus on critical thinking and seeking out evidence to support beliefs. This can involve questioning assumptions, examining the logic of arguments, and seeking out multiple sources of information. Another strategy is to seek out educational resources that can provide a better understanding of scientific concepts and the natural explanations for events. Additionally, practicing mindfulness and self-reflection can help individuals to become more aware of their thought patterns and to challenge irrational beliefs.

In conclusion, magical thinking is a type of irrational belief that involves attributing causality to events or actions that are unrelated. It can be influenced by cultural and personal factors and can have both positive and negative consequences. By focusing on critical thinking and seeking out educational resources, individuals can reduce the prevalence of magical thinking and improve their understanding of the world.

Overthinking

Overthinking Jonathan Poland

Overthinking, also known as rumination, is a thought process that involves excessive and prolonged contemplation of a problem or situation. It is often characterized by an obsessive focus on negative thoughts and can have a range of negative consequences, including reduced efficiency and effectiveness, indecisiveness, and decreased well-being.

There are several factors that can contribute to overthinking. One common cause is stress or anxiety, which can lead individuals to excessively worry about potential outcomes or dangers. This can be especially common in situations that are uncertain or that involve a high level of risk, as individuals may feel a need to try to anticipate and control every potential outcome. Another factor is perfectionism, which can lead individuals to spend excessive amounts of time trying to ensure that everything is perfect or to avoid making mistakes. This can be particularly problematic in fields or industries where there is a high level of competition or where the consequences of making a mistake are severe. Additionally, overthinking can be a coping mechanism used to avoid dealing with difficult emotions or situations. Rather than dealing with negative feelings directly, individuals may try to distract themselves by thinking excessively about a problem or situation.

Overthinking can have serious consequences for both individuals and organizations. At the individual level, overthinking can lead to decreased well-being, including increased risk of depression and anxiety. It can also interfere with daily functioning, leading to decreased productivity and difficulty making decisions. This can have a range of negative consequences, including difficulty meeting deadlines, difficulty completing tasks, and difficulty making decisions that are important to one’s personal or professional life. At the organizational level, overthinking can lead to decreased efficiency and effectiveness, as well as increased risk-taking due to indecisiveness. This can lead to missed opportunities, reduced competitiveness, and increased risk of failure.

There are several strategies that individuals can use to reduce overthinking. One approach is to practice mindfulness, which involves focusing on the present moment and letting go of negative thoughts. This can involve activities such as meditation or deep breathing, which can help to calm the mind and reduce stress. Another strategy is to engage in activities that allow for creative expression, such as writing, drawing, or music, as these can help to distract from negative thoughts and provide a sense of accomplishment. Additionally, setting boundaries and limiting exposure to sources of stress or negative stimuli can be helpful in reducing overthinking. This can involve setting limits on the amount of time spent on work or other tasks, setting aside time for relaxation and self-care, and avoiding or limiting exposure to negative news or other sources of stress.

Overthinking is a common and potentially harmful thought process that can have negative consequences for both individuals and organizations. By being aware of the potential pitfalls of overthinking and implementing strategies to reduce it, individuals and organizations can improve their well-being and effectiveness. This can involve practicing mindfulness, engaging in creative activities, and setting boundaries to limit exposure to stress and negative stimuli. By taking these steps, individuals and organizations can break the cycle of overthinking and improve their overall well-being and performance.

Keep It Super Simple

Keep It Super Simple Jonathan Poland

Keep it Super Simple or Keep it Simple Stupid. The KISS principle is a design guideline that suggests that unnecessary complexity should be avoided. The principle was first documented by the US Navy in 1960 and was coined by Kelly Johnson, an engineer at the Lockheed Skunk Works that developed advanced military jets such as the U-2 and SR-71 Blackbird. The idea behind KISS is that simplicity often leads to better results and is easier to maintain. By keeping things simple, you can reduce the potential for errors and make it easier for others to understand and use your work.

Pragmatism

The philosophy that something is true if it is true for all practical purposes.

Rule of Least Power

The principle that you select the least powerful technology that can solve your problems.

There’s More Than One Way To Do It

The problem solving and design principle that there is no perfect solution just many good solutions.

Essential Complexity

The idea that a design be no more complex than required.

Less is More

A philosophy of design that states that removing things always adds value. This is ideological and can’t be applied to engineering designs where things actually need to be functional.

Minimalism

A lifestyle or design based on the principle of less is more whereby removing things becomes a goal in itself.

You Ain’t Gonna Need It

The principle there is great value to be found in challenging the very assumption that something is needed.

Fool-proofing

The practice of making user interfaces such that it is impossible for the user to do things wrong.

Principle of Least Astonishment

The principle of least astonishment is the guideline that user interfaces work as people expect such that there is nothing to explain.

Principle of Least Effort

The marketing and design principle that user interfaces require as little effort from the user as possible. This tends to make products more popular but can also have negative implications such as making them more dangerous.

Design to the Edges

The principle that a single design be accessible for as many people as possible. This can be contrasted with the poor practice of designing everything for the mythical average person or designing separate things for each special need.

If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It

The principle that you fight the common urge to replace or change old things that are working reasonably well. Likely originated as folk wisdom in the American South sometime between 1930 and 1950.

Brevity is the Soul of Wit

Keep it simple stupid for communication that suggests that short statements are often more intelligent and effective than long ones. Coined by William Shakespeare.

It’s the Economy, Stupid

A campaign slogan associated with Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign. This is broadly associated with influencing that focuses on people’s strongest motivations in a particular situation.

Don’t Repeat Yourself

A software principle that suggests that each pattern of logic and each item of data exist in only one place. This is wonderful in theory but it is common for architects to create mindlessly complex solutions to try to make this happen.

Write Everything Twice

A challenge to the traditional principle of Don’t Repeat Yourself that states that architectures are often less expensive and more resilient when they contain redundancies. These contrary approaches are nicely abbreviated DRY vs WET.

Paper Prototype

The process of testing your ideas in the fastest, cheapest way possible using an inexpensive prototype.

Fail Well

The design of things to fail fast, cheap and safe so that you know if they work without taking much risk. Avoids the common pattern of making things too complex in an attempt to avoid failure.

Sanity Check

The practice of taking a step back and asking “does this make any sense at all?”

Occam’s Razor

The rule of thumb that the theory that makes the least assumptions is often correct. Often misrepresented with popular paraphrasing such as “the simplest explanation is usually right.”

Perfect Is The Enemy of Good

An aphorism, commonly attributed to Voltaire, that suggests that perfectionism can lead to bad results.

Pareto Principle

A common efficiency and productivity heuristic that states that the first 20% of effort often produces 80% of the result. This can be used to argue against the value of perfectionism.

Minimum Viable Product

A principle of entrepreneurship and design that you launch a product to the customer as quickly as possible with the minimum set of features that make the product usable.

Golden Mean

The idea that the correct path in any situation is a middle path between extremes. This is addressed by both Socrates and Plato and originates in earlier Greek mythology.

Simplify Then Add Lightness

A similar principle to KISS that includes the idea of dematerialization whereby things are designed to use less materials and to be lighter. Attributed to Colin Chapman, the founder of Lotus Cars.

Path of Least Resistance

The path of least resistance is the easiest path to a goal. This can be problematic.

Precautionary Principle

The precautionary principle states that if there is any doubt that a product, chemical, medicine or other product is safe for the environment and people that decisions on whether to launch it to the market must err on the side of caution. This is a simple idea that could have prevented most environmental problems if it had been historically applied.

Conceptual Framework

Conceptual Framework Jonathan Poland

A conceptual framework is a theoretical structure that represents and organizes a set of concepts and ideas. It is used in various fields, including research, education, and business, to help individuals understand and make sense of complex topics or phenomena.

A conceptual framework can serve several purposes, including:

  1. Defining and clarifying concepts: A conceptual framework can help define and clarify the key concepts and ideas related to a particular topic or issue.
  2. Identifying relationships: A conceptual framework can help identify the relationships between different concepts and ideas, and how they fit together to form a cohesive whole.
  3. Providing a framework for analysis: A conceptual framework can serve as a guide for analyzing and interpreting data or information related to a particular topic or issue.
  4. Facilitating communication: A conceptual framework can help individuals communicate and share their understanding of a particular topic or issue with others.

There are several steps involved in developing a conceptual framework:

  1. Identify the research question or problem: Clearly define the research question or problem that the conceptual framework will address.
  2. Conduct a literature review: Review existing research and literature on the topic to identify the key concepts and ideas that are relevant to the research question or problem.
  3. Identify the relationships between concepts: Determine how the identified concepts are related to each other and how they fit together to form a cohesive whole.
  4. Develop the conceptual framework: Use the identified concepts and relationships to develop a theoretical structure that represents and organizes the key ideas related to the research question or problem.

In summary, a conceptual framework is a theoretical structure that represents and organizes a set of concepts and ideas. It is used to define and clarify concepts, identify relationships, provide a framework for analysis, and facilitate communication. To develop a conceptual framework, it is necessary to identify the research question or problem, conduct a literature review, identify the relationships between concepts, and develop the conceptual framework.

Cause and Effect

Cause and Effect Jonathan Poland

Cause and effect is a concept that refers to the relationship between an event (the cause) and a subsequent result (the effect). When an event occurs, it can have a range of consequences or effects, which can be positive, negative, or neutral. Understanding cause and effect is important in a variety of contexts, including science, decision-making, and problem-solving.

There are several ways to identify cause and effect relationships:

  1. Observation: By carefully observing and analyzing a situation, individuals can identify the events or factors that precede or follow a particular outcome.
  2. Experimentation: Conducting controlled experiments allows individuals to manipulate a single variable (the cause) and observe its effect on a particular outcome.
  3. Correlation: Correlation refers to the statistical relationship between two variables, which can indicate a causal relationship if other possible causes are ruled out.

Understanding cause and effect can help individuals:

  1. Predict outcomes: By understanding the factors that contribute to a particular outcome, individuals can make more accurate predictions about what will happen in the future.
  2. Make informed decisions: Understanding cause and effect can help individuals identify the potential consequences of their actions and make more informed decisions.
  3. Solve problems: Identifying the root cause of a problem can help individuals develop effective solutions that address the underlying issue rather than just the symptoms.

In summary, cause and effect refers to the relationship between an event and a subsequent result. It can be identified through observation, experimentation, and correlation, and understanding cause and effect can help individuals predict outcomes, make informed decisions, and solve problems. The following are illustrative examples of cause and effect.

Material

A chair breaks when you sit on it because it is made of a weak material.

Cause: weak material
Effect: chair breaks

Actions

A chair breaks because you jump on it.

Cause: jump
Effect: chair breaks

Ideas

You jump on a chair because you think it looks strong.

Cause: you overestimate the strength of a chair
Effect: chair breaks

Design

A chair is poorly designed such that its legs aren’t structurally stable so that it breaks when you sit on it.

Cause: poor design
Effect: chair breaks

States

A french fry is too hot when you eat it so you burn your tongue.

Cause: heat
Effect: burn

Motivation

You eat breakfast because you’re hungry.

Cause: hungry
Effect: eat

Chance

Chance is an event that occurs relatively randomly. For example, getting hit by lightning may be caused by your actions such as walking outside. However, it is mostly viewed as a chance event that is bad luck because the probability of being struck by lightning is relatively low even if you are walking in a storm.

Cause: chance
Effect: hit by lightning

Multiple Causes

There is often more than one cause of an effect. For example, you get a bad score on a test because you didn’t study and you ate poorly before the test such that your brain wasn’t optimally nourished.

Cause: failure to study, poor diet
Effect: poor test result

Sequence of Events

Multiple causes that are related to each other. For example, you fall off your bike and go to the hospital. The hospital is unusually busy and you wait 6 hours to see a doctor. You get home late and therefore have no time to study for a test the next day resulting in a poor score.

Cause: fall off bike, hospital busy, long wait, no time to study
Effect: poor test result

Butterfly Effect

The butterfly effect is the observation that a seemingly trivial event can lead to a completely different set of outcomes such that a butterfly flapping its wings can theoretically transform the future. For example, a slippery spot on a soccer field could be the difference in a player’s stability during a shot that results in missing the net, losing a game and not winning the World Cup. This may influence an entire nation. In a world without the slippery spot, the goal might have been scored, the World Cup won and the spirits of a nation lifted. Examples like this can be taken extremely far whereby small seemingly meaningless events can theoretically result in a completely different future.

Minor Cause: slippery spot
Ultimate Effect: losing world cup, influences the mood of a nation possibly leading to a significantly different future

Chain Reaction

A string of cause and effect such as a car that hits the car in front of it causing that car to hit the car in front of it. In this case, the first in the string of events is considered the cause.

Cause: car hits car
Effect: multiple cars hit each other resulting in damage

Root Cause

It is common for a cause to create a chain of secondary causes such that complex relationships exist between causes. In this case, it is useful to attempt to determine the root cause that is the primary cause of many events. For example, a poorly designed touch screen navigation system in an automobile may lead drivers to be distracted leading to multiple accidents. In each case, the accident looks like human error but each has a deeper root cause in the design of the user interface.

Cause: poorly designed user interface
Effects: distracted drivers, accidents

Probabilities

In many cases, the cause of events is unclear with multiple suspected causes. In this case, probabilities for each suspected cause may be estimated to determine a likely cause. For example, a biologist may estimate a 40% probability that a particular disease is causing trees in a forest to die.

Cause: disease (40% probability)
Effect: trees dying

Concurrent Causes

In many cases, there are more than one significant causes for an effect. For example, a forest may die because of shifts in climate, weather events and a disease with all playing a contributing role.

Causes: climate change, weather events, disease
Effect: dying forest

Arrow of Time

Arrow of time is the principle that time moves in a single direction such that causes occur before effects in time. For example, if you buy slippery shoes, wear slippery shoes, it rains, you go for a walk, you slip on wet pavement the first event in this chain is likely to be the root cause.

Root Cause: bought slippery shoes
Effect: slipped

Immediate Cause

An immediate cause is the closest significant cause to the effect in time. If you slip on wet pavement, the immediate cause is that your feet failed to grip the pavement. Focusing on immediate causes can be counterproductive as it is usually the root cause that is important to improving things.

Immediate Cause: feet failed to grip pavement
Effect: slipped

Unintended Consequence

An unintended consequence is an action or idea that produces results you never intended or imagined. For example, a manufacturer develops a new softer plastic by introducing new chemicals into the manufacturing process. This plastic gets used in a wide variety of food products such that the chemical leaches into food. Within a decade, a large percentage of a population have the new chemicals in their bodies. It is then discovered that the chemicals cause a series of diseases.

Cause: new chemical in plastic
Effect: disease

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to be true. For example, a science fiction book that imagines a future technology. This fictional technology enters the popular imagination until one day it is finally implemented to become a reality.

Cause: prediction
Effect: prediction comes true

Synchronicity

Synchronicity is the theory that coincidences can have meaning. For example, a student is applying for university and can’t decide between nursing and engineering. On the day they need to send in the application they run into their a relative who is a nurse. The relative tells the student in passing conversation about the stresses of their job in a way that sounds like they regret their career choice. The student finds this strange that they should accidentally receive this information on the exact day that the decision is to be made. The student decides this must be meaningful and they choose to go into engineering.

Cause: coincidence to obtain information exactly when you need it
Effect: influences a decision, thought process or idea

Vicious Circle

A vicious circle is a situation where a problem creates other problems that creates other problems such that a situation becomes worse and worse. In this situation it is important to identify and address root causes. For example, a student has a poor diet and eats too much sugar. This leads to an difficulty in concentrating at school. This leads to behavioral problems. This leads to getting expelled from school. This leads to a negative self image and so on.

Root Cause: poor nutrition
Effect: difficultly concentrating, behavioral problems, negative self-image

Virtuous Cycle

A virtuous cycle is a situation where a positive leads to other positives that lead to other positives such that things seem to easily work out well. For example, a student loves to read. This makes them better at writing, expressing themselves and making decisions. This gives them better grades and leads to more educational choices. This leads to connections with talented peers and teachers. This leads to more learning and so on.

Cause: passion for reading
Effects: better at writing, decision making improved, grades improved, educational opportunities, opportunities to engage talented peers and so on.

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